WASHINGTON, DC – The United States saw dramatic increases in the number of ballots cast by traditionally underrepresented groups, including Americans of color and young voters, according to an analysis released today by Project Vote.
Countering the conventional wisdom that voter turnout on November 4 did not change as dramatically as predicted, Project Vote’s new analysis demonstrates that African-Americans, Latinos, and young voters cast millions more ballots in 2008 than in 2004.
According to study, African-Americans cast nearly three million more ballots nationwide in 2008 than in 2004—an increase of 21 percent. The total votes cast by Latinos went up by sixteen percent—more than 1.5 million—and young Americans aged 18-29 cast 1.8 million more votes, a nine percent increase. That the overall number of ballots cast did not increase significantly compared to 2004 was in part due to a decrease in voting by white voters.
Historically, participation among African-Americans, Latinos, and young voters has lagged disproportionately behind other groups, but the Project Vote analysis suggests that may have changed this year.
“The exciting story from 2008 is not that overall turnout increased, but that the electorate we heard from at the polls more closely resembled the true demographics and diversity of the American people,” says Michael Slater, executive director of Project Vote.
In addition to presenting an analysis of ballots cast from the United States as a whole, the Project Vote analysis examines several key states in detail, including Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Highlights of the state findings include:
- In Missouri, African-American and Latino voters increased the number of votes cast by 160,000 and 30,000, respectively, compared to 2004.
- In New Mexico, ballot totals among young Americans increased by 32 percent.
- In Colorado, Latinos increased their voting totals by over 71 percent, or 122,000 votes, more than half the size of the margin of victory in that state.
The analysis was conducted by Project Vote consultant and Ph.D. candidate Jody Herman, and Barnard College political science professor Lorraine Minnite. Herman and Minnite emphasize that the data is preliminary, and does not speak to “turnout,” which is traditionally a measure of the percentage of the voting-eligible population that shows up to vote. Project Vote expects to release a full report on turnout in the 2008 election in 2009 when government survey data on the voting-eligible population comes available.
While later studies will more fully document the makeup of the 2008 electorate, this preliminary analysis indicates that a significant shift occurred this year. “There is no doubt that this surge in voting by Americans of color and young people had a powerful impact on the outcome of the election,” says Slater.